These results are approximately consistent with a r−1 propagation attenuation. Figure 14Region around Cumbre Vieja volcano after 5 min of simulated time with THETIS for the 80 km3 slide scenario: (a) wave elevation for the initial solution from THETIS and (b) filtered state which is used to initialize FUNWAVE-TVD. As expected, due to dispersion, waves involving periods smaller than 4 min, whose respective celerity is smaller, are no longer visible in the spectrum whichever gauge is considered. https://strangesounds.org/2020/02/largest-mega-tsunami-the-1958-alaskan-super-wave-was-1720-feet-524-meters-high.html. As a result, it is not necessary to model the entire slide runout in order to capture the generation of waves that will affect distant shorelines. With a higher viscosity, the slide dynamics and the resulting wave generation changes significantly compared to the inviscid case for the 80 km3 volume case. In this study, we proposed several slide volume scenarios which can be used for a crude assessment of the wave reduction in case the collapse occurred as several separate events with no interactions between the successive slides (e.g., the 20 km3 scenario may give an idea of what would happen if an 80 km3 slide were to occur progressively or in sequence). THETIS belongs to the immiscible multiphase full Navier–Stokes type of solver. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Geophys., 172, 3589–3616, Viroulet, S., Sauret, A., Kimmoun, O., and Kharif, C.: Granular collapse into 2001. , Wei, G., Kirby, J. T., Grilli, S. T., and Subramanya, R.: A fully nonlinear Abadie, S., Paris, A., Ata, R., Roy, S. L., Arnaud, G., Poupardin, A., Clous, This is probably due to the fact that only the largest wavelengths are able to refract enough to reach these locations. Volcano (La Palma, Canary Islands): Tsunami source and near field La Palma landslide tsunami: computation of the tsunami source with a calibrated multi-fluid Navier–Stokes model and wave impact assessment with propagation models … Part of this work was supported by the Laboratoire de Recherche Conventionné (LRC) CEA-Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS) Yves Rocard. ... UK, believes one flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma, … Estimates are 100′ tall tsunami traveling roughly 500 mph. (2018a), are very promising approaches able to describe the flow within the grains, as well as the grain–grain interactions, but their applicability to practical cases has not been demonstrated yet. This gives a viscosity in the slide that is space- and time-dependent. Int., 203, 2287–2302, 2015. a, Gisler, G., Weaver, R., and Gittings, M. L.: SAGE calculations of the tsunami Geophys., 55, 1158–1198, 2017. , Grilli, S. T., Harris, J. C., Bakhsh, T. S. T., Masterlark, T. L., over porous beds, J. Eng. Highly nonlinear unsteady waves, 8 Conclusions Although a unanimous verdict is impossible due to the limited data available, we judge this landslide tsunami model to be successful in reproducing the observed features of the 1888 Ritter Island tsunami. (2012). The good news in that report is that any tsunami action caused by a La Palma landslide would take between five and six hours to reach the U.S. coast. (2012), and Tehranirad et al. collapse down a rough inclined plane, EPL (Europhysics Letters), 105, breaking waves and coastal inundation, Ocean Modell., 43–44, 36–51, 2012. . Eng., 142, 42–51, 2018b. , Tappin, D., Grilli, S., Ward, S., Day, S., Grilli, A., Carey, S., Watt, S., Figure 22 shows the distribution of the maximum surface elevations in the most refined domains of Calypso. On Saturday, Oct 7, 2017, and continuing into Tuesday, La Palma has been rattled by an earthquake swarm of more than 40 quakes, between 1.5 and 2.7 in magnitude, in only 48 hours. Krakatau – 22nd December 2018, EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, This seismic swarm is a sign of unrest… And such an increased activity has scientists going nuts as everybody knows that the collapse of this volcanic peak could kill millions of people in Europe and along Northern America’s eastern seaboard. Pure Appl. effects, J. Geophys. Note that the wave energy focus has the same direction in both cases (i.e., 20∘ south of west). 9 Hours: Waves 20–25 metres (66–82 ft) approach Florida; they are not expected to grow farther as they hit the coast. Both B and C. Can a magnitude 9 earthquake easily generate an earthquake crossing tsunamis? J. The tsunami expected from a lateral collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano on La Palma in the Canary Islands was modeled. These data allow potential users to either compute the slide on their own and do the whole sequence of computations or start from the already filtered wave solution to carry out propagation and impact studies. Slide viscosity is 2 × 107 Pa s. Res. The latest swarm started Dec. 23rd around 9:26 p.m. and ended Dec. 24th at 9:29 p.m. local time. Geol., (2012), namely 450 km3, is not considered in this paper (see Sect. 4). Figure 21Maximum surface elevations (m) computed by FUNWAVE-TVD for the 80 km3 scenario on the western French coasts at a 450 m resolution. Tehranirad, B., Harris, J. C., Grilli, A. R., Grilli, S. T., Abadie, S., Kirby, Four gauges monitored the surface elevation at x1=0.45 m, x2=0.75 m, x3=1.05 m and x4=1.35 m. Be curious! It is made up of four main groups of islands (Fig. 6) with a total surface of 1628 km2. The wave impact is still very significant on nearby areas and on more remote coasts, such as Guadeloupe, located in the path of the maximum wave energy for the maximum slide volume considered here (i.e., 80 km3). According to a 'psychic' who goes by the name T Chase, Cumbre Vieja on La Palma - not far from tourist hotspot Tenerife - will be hit first. Sci. ArcGIS® and ArcMap™ are the intellectual property of Esri and are used herein under license. ... How did Atwater determine the age of the Cascadia faults tsunami? Technical report, No. (2013), which employed a simplified VOF method, taking advantage of the large aspect ratio of the tsunami waves. Res., 94, 323–340, 1999. , Flather, R.: A tidal model of the northwest European continental shelf, Mem. Subtitled "Mega-tsunami: Wave of Destruction", the documentary elaborated how the volcano Cumbre Vieja on the Canary island of La Palma poses an enormous risk to the eastern coastline of the Americas. The red rectangle represents a daughter grid covering the western French coasts (see Figs. 5 and 21). The slide considered in Abadie et al. “A colossal wave caused by a chunk of rock the size of the Isle of Man breaking off La Palma in the Canary Islands, will one day devastate Southern Europe and the entire East coast of America. scenarios and hazard assessment along the northern coast of Haiti, 71–96, 2008a. , Zhang, Y. J. and Baptista, A. M.: An efficient and robust tsunami model on The tsunami source calculated in this paper after 15 min of propagation in FUNWAVE-TVD and proposed to the community in the SEA scieNtific Open data Edition (SEANOE) repository is dispersive, and therefore we recommend using appropriate models (e.g., Boussinesq models) to propagate further this source in future studies. Flouzat, M.: The 1979 submarine landslide-generated tsunami in Mururoa, 93, 40–55, 2015. a, Mader, C. L.: Modeling the La Palma landslide tsunami, Science of Tsunami 93, 40–55, 2015. , Mader, C. L.: Modeling the La Palma landslide tsunami, Science of Tsunami The latter is located 16∘ N and 61∘ W in the Lesser Antilles at 4600 km from the Cumbre Vieja volcano. A. R., Engwell, S. L., Zhang, C., Kirby, J. T., Schambach, L., Grilli, S. T., Tappin, D. R., Carey, S., Watt, S. F. L., Ward, S. N., Grilli, A. R., Engwell, S. L., Zhang, C., Kirby, J. T., Schambach, L., and Muin, M.: (2017), for instance. This work is distributed under, La Palma landslide tsunami: calibrated wave source and assessment of impact on French territories. 2004. a, Chen, Q.: Fully nonlinear Boussinesq-type equations for waves and currents The largest slide volume considered in Abadie et al. Inviscid slide from Abadie et al. Though I guess 1500 ft up Tenerife we’d be safe even if a La Palma mega Tsunami occurred! Its latest explosion was in 1949. modeling with SCHISM, Ocean Modell., 102, 64–81, 2016. , https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01180-0, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563412500118, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1135-5, https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/105/34004. View of the Cumbre Vieja volcano Getty Images. Engwell, S., and Muslim, M.: The devastating eruption tsunami of Anak (2015), Kirby et al. The comparison of the Boussinesq models (i.e., FUNWAVE-TVD and Calypso) mutually validates the models in this particular case and secures the results obtained. Nevertheless, we focused on the 80 km3 as it is consistent with the size of the deposits identified at the toe of the volcano, possibly corresponding to its last massive flank collapse (about 300 000 years ago). (2012) (i.e., wave height approximately half that of the one previously computed after 10 min of propagation for the 80 km3 scenario). This extensive work could not be carried out for the entire French metropolitan coastlines, and, in this case, maximum flow depth is therefore used as a proxy to estimate wave impact. Therefore, there is here a very important source of uncertainty which the reader has to be aware of, and this uncertainty propagates and affects the impact results. Geophys. Iceland earthquake swarm and signs of inflation: Is Thorbjörn, Fagradalsfjall or Krysuvik going to blow? Considering a credible yet extreme 80 km3 scenario, it is shown that the impact on the French Atlantic coast would remain moderate but could also be significant on the coast of Portugal and be very significant in the Guadeloupe archipelago. In the present paper, the aim is to propose a more realistic source prediction by calibrating the previous Navier–Stokes model with respect to recent experimental measurements of waves generated by granular slides. Coastal Research, University of Delaware, 2011. . Res. Basin from Large Scale Flank Collapses of the Cumbre Vieja we use turbidite deposits to interpret landslide processes?, in: Submarine Mega-tsunami waves are much longer than the ones we are used to. You have entered an incorrect email address! This may be due to the one-fluid model formulation which does not allow for the flow to pass through the granular medium as in reality. Therefore, this simulation shows that a well-calibrated Newtonian rheology can be used to model a complex granular rheology at least in this specific case for which energy transfers are very fast. Four grids are used to simulate the propagation of water waves in coastal regions: unstructured grids. model for tsunami wave generation: Theory and computation, Ocean Modell., To project this onto the local area, a transverse secant Mercator projection is used, which is similar to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) system but centered at 28.5∘ N and 18.5∘ W corresponding to +68 km, +14 km. After this initial phase of propagation, the results of wave elevation and horizontal velocity are transferred to larger-scale simulations to predict propagation and impact on various coastlines, as detailed in Sect. 2.3. Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM) (Zhang et al., 2016) is a derivative product of the SELFE model (Zhang and Baptista, 2008a). Mech., 686, 378–408, 2011. a, Løvholt, F., Pedersen, G., and Gisler, G.: Oceanic propagation of a Control on Tsunami Genesis – The Storegga Slide and Tsunami (8,100 Years BP), waves generated by landslides using a multiple-fluid Navier-Stokes model, British Columbia, submarine landslide tsunami: a comparison of modeling Scientists believe this disaster is already way overdue. Earth-Sci. A simulation with a μ(I) rheology was also performed for comparison purposes with the same configuration as Viroulet et al. Also an landslide triggered tsunami! Wow, thank God more people weren’t killed. Caribbean tsunami. Empirical equations based on P allow for a simple … List of recent and latest earthquakes recorded in and close to this area today and now. Dr Simon Day, a … The mother grid covers the Canary Islands and a large part of the Atlantic Ocean to the French coasts. For some tsunamis, in particular those originating from nonseismic sources, such models may not be … The first wave and the wave train which follows are well reproduced for a viscosity of 10 Pa s even if the slide at this viscosity is shown to be slower than in the experiment. 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, In the Caribbean Sea, the tsunami wave features close to the Guadeloupe archipelago will be detailed. Third, the La Palma slide is partially submerged but with a larger subaerial portion. At t=5 min, the leading wave is ∼80 m high in the largest slide volume scenario (i.e., 80 km3) and is only 50 and 20 m for smaller slide volumes (40 and 20 km3, respectively). One of the most popular holiday destinations for people all over the world, the island of La Palma is now seen as a time bomb by many scientists. This semi-empirical parameter is based on the streamwise slide momentum flux component and it was refined with a multiple regression laboratory data analysis. As such, it is more sophisticated with respect to the slide motion than models such as SAGE (Gisler et al., 2006), which rely on a compressible formulation of the equations, or the 3D Navier–Stokes model described in Horrillo et al. at La Palma, Canary Islands, Geophys. Jop, P., Forterre, Y., and Pouliquen, O.: A constitutive law for dense granular flows, Nature, 441, 727–730, Kennedy, A. B., Kirby, J. T., Chen, Q., and Dalrymple, R. A.: Boussinesq-type Panic has erupted over fears a Canary Islands volcano could blow and spark a monster tsunami – after it suffered 50 earthquakes in just three days. In Europe, the impact may be considered as moderate to significant in the most exposed areas, such as some areas in Portugal and Spain, and weak to moderate along the French Atlantic coast. Note that the second wave, which also features a large trough, appears to be the largest in this area. For the transatlantic simulations presented here, the Manning coefficient is a constant (0.025 m-1/3 s). as a continuum: validity of a two-dimensional Navier–Stokes model with a Using a geologically reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami waves produced by such a collapse. Geophys., 177, 571–590, 2020. a, Paris, R., Ramalho, R. S., Madeira, J., Ávila, S., May, S. M., Rixhon, G., of Mexico, J. Geophys. mass failures: effect of slide rheology, experimental validation, and case Res.-Oceans, 118, 6934–6950, 2013. . Figure 4Computational domains for Calypso at 2 km (A) resolution in black, FUNWAVE-TVD at 2.7 km (B), 930 m (C) and 310 m (D) resolutions in red, and SCHISM at variable resolution (E) in green. Dispersive tsunami waves in the ocean: Model equations and sensitivity to Glass beads had a density of 2500 kg m−3 and a diameter of 1.5 mm in the first case and 10 mm in the second. applications, Rev. collapse down a rough inclined plane, EPL (Europhysics Letters), 105, Res. Hazards, 86, 353–391, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, Grilli, S. T., Tappin, D. R., Carey, S., Watt, S. F., Ward, S. N., Grilli, T.: The CORINE land cover 2000 project, EARSeL eProceedings, 3, 331–346, Mech., 132, 220–230, 2006. . The same overall behavior is observed in the second case with glass beads with a diameter of 10 mm, but a higher value of viscosity has to be set in order to fit the experimental wave heights. 325–332, Springer, Dordrecht, 2003. a, Zhang, Y. and Baptista, A. M.: SELFE: a semi-implicit Eulerian–Lagrangian Two synthetic gauges are used in this area: gauges 8 and 9, respectively, north and south of Guadeloupe island. The time takes into account the first 20 min of the slide and tsunami generation. Kirby, J. T., and Shi, F.: Modeling coastal tsunami hazard from submarine Figure 18Surface elevations (m) (left column) and Fourier transforms (right column) for the 20 km3 scenario at Gauge 2 in southern Portugal (a and a2), Gauge 3 in the abyssal plain of the Bay of Biscay (b and b2), Gauge 4 on the continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay (c and c2), Gauge 5 in southern Brittany (d and d2), Gauge 6 in the Gironde estuary (e and e2) and Gauge 7 in Saint-Jean-de-Luz (f and f2) computed by FUNWAVE-TVD. Geosys., 10, q03014, Shi, F., Kirby, J. T., Harris, J. C., Geiman, J. D., and Grilli, S. T.: A Geophys., For this volume, after almost 10 min of propagation, the leading wave, which was previously about 80 m high, only reaches ∼30 m in the new viscous slide case (Fig. 12c).