The NLD’s margin of victory expanded the party’s influence, gaining it 83 per cent of the elected seats in parliament – slightly better than even its 2015 landslide. The sanctions alienated Myanmar’s neighbours, which saw them as disproportionate, creating an unhelpful West-versus-East dynamic that inhibited cooperation. In the November 2020 elections, the NLD received around 68 per cent of the popular vote, which would translate into a wafer-thin majority of 51 per cent of the entire parliament, given that one quarter of the seats are reserved for Tatmadaw appointees.Hide Footnote Alternatively, the generals could take steps that in effect neutralise Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD as political threats. Few, if any, governments or organisations have the access and goodwill necessary to influence Myanmar’s leaders. ; “Treasury Sanctions Commanders and Units of the Burmese Security Forces for Serious Human Rights Abuses”, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 17 August 2018; and “Treasury Sanctions Individuals for Roles in Atrocities and Other Abuses”, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 10 December 2019. Demonstrators gather in downtown Yangon to protest against the military coup. They would, however, also have little impact on the military’s incentives: Myanmar’s military leaders seem quite content staying inside the country’s borders or visiting only close allies, and they have few assets in Western jurisdictions. This collection provides insights into the country's economic development, in particular the vital rice-marketing sector and the attempts to expand existing industrial zones. [fn]Crisis Group telephone interviews, diplomats, New York, February 2021.Hide Footnote. Since 1962, military leaders have insisted that Myanmar, as much as possible, do things its own way and rely on its own resources. The UN Security Council issued a press statement expressing “deep concern” about the “arbitrary detention” of members of the government, calling for the release of those detained and emphasising the need to “uphold democratic institutions and processes, refrain from violence, and fully respect human rights, fundamental freedoms and the rule of law”. Broad-based economic sanctions would harm the population more than the regime, and the impact of targeted sanctions will inevitably be limited. The pre-coup political order was hardly satisfactory, and the civilian leadership had certainly fallen far short in many areas, especially its treatment of the Rohingya. Tackling a closed regime so hostile to outside ideas presents enormous policy challenges and there are no quick fixes. Myanmar has been little influenced by foreign intellectual trends, including on human rights, economic development processes, and so forth. [fn]Ibid.Hide Footnote The Committee is unlikely to be able to influence the course of events, however, until the military decides to reopen the door to civilian rule. An obvious pressure point on the military regime is its supplies of weapons and military equipment. Such reviews are appropriate and may be legally required, but donors should do all they can to prevent any recalibration from imperilling programs that have become crucial to millions of Myanmar people. While the government obviously is primarily responsible for this, sanctions have thus had an indirect negative effect on poverty, health and education standards”.Hide Footnote. The temptation to fall back on sanctions is understandable, particularly in facing a regime with so few pressure points. 7 February 2021. During four decades of military rule, Myanmar’s leaders have grown increasingly inward-looking and alienated. Hence it was standard for any transaction in and out of Myanmar or even containing the keyword “Myanmar” to be blocked and marked for manual review, which could take days or weeks, even if the entity were as a legal matter exempted from sanctions. Reuters reports that Facebook has removed the main page (True News Information Team) for the military, known as the Tatmadaw, for "repeated violations" of community rules that prevent inciting and coordinating violence. The Reagan administration imposed this ban on 23 September 1988 under the 1976 Arms Export Control Act. [fn]See Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°151, Myanmar’s Stalled Transition, 28 August 2018.Hide Footnote His toxic personal relations with Aung San Suu Kyi and her perceived failure to treat the military and its concerns with due respect added to the friction. Another relates to personal security. ; and contemporaneous Crisis Group interviews, Western diplomats, companies and analysts, 2003-2010.Hide Footnote In 2008, it banned import of precious stones originating from Myanmar, regardless of where they were processed, under the JADE Act. Myanmar military government revokes citizen protections against home arrest, indefinite detention. The memory of the crackdown on the 8888 student-instigated protests that broke out on 8 August 1988, in which thousands died, should be on everyone’s mind. Despite deteriorating economic and developmental conditions, worsening environmental problems, and troubles arising from the unresolved status of its ethnic minorities, Myanmar seems no closer to a political resolution. Myanmar’s participation in ASEAN has also been half-hearted at best. In 2016, the year before the Rohingya crisis, ODA flows reached $1.537 million. Investment and trade bans. Around the world, and particularly in Western capitals that have asserted they will hold the military to account for the coup, policymakers are faced with the challenge of how to match actions to words. “Shift possible on Burma policy”. Combining the expertise of military officers and scholars from the region, the study argues that 'old professionalism' is on the rise in Asia as the role of coercion in governance has been reduced and the distribution of power has shifted away from the military in favor of political and civil society. [fn]See “Directives from authorities in Myanmar – February 2021”, and other Telenor statements available at the company’s website. Create free account to access unlimited books, fast download and ads free! See Council of the European Union Common Position of 28 October 1996, 96/635/CFSP. Anti-coup poster in downtown Yangon. See also Laura Kelly, “Biden to redirect $42 million in aid to Myanmar, sanction key military figures”. While it has an important role to play, the U.S. may need to take a back seat when it comes to direct engagement. It complied with military internet restrictions while publicly criticising the measures and even temporarily making calls and text messages free. “Amid coup, Myanmar’s NLD lawmakers form committee to serve as legitimate parliament”, The Committee’s statements appear in Burmese on its. In 2016, the year before the Rohingya crisis, ODA flows reached $1.537 million. For U.S. measures, see footnote 20 above. For Australian measures, see “Myanmar Sanctions Regime”, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. MYANMAR: THE STATE, COMMUNITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT examines the missed opportunities by government and opposition groups to find a way out of the political impasse and improve the standard of living of the people of Myanmar. Restrictions were also imposed on high-level government-to-government bilateral contacts. [fn]See also Thant Myint-U, “Myanmar’s youth hold the country’s future in their hands”, Financial Times, 12 February 2021.Hide Footnote The constitution the military drafted in 2008, after half a century of its direct rule, lays out a framework the generals still appear to consider apt, but which has done little to help Myanmar tackle its many challenges: an elected government; a politically empowered and largely autonomous military; and a president with broad executive powers who the military expects would be its ally. See also Lee Jones, “. Myanmar reported have received 30 Serbia's Nora B-52 truck-mounted howitzer (photo : Military Today) Despite its newer, more modern weaponry, Myanmar's ambitious military-modernization campaign is proving ineffectual in fighting the various ethnic armies along its borders. 1/2021, Office of the President, 1 February 2021.Hide Footnote, Myanmar has seen coups before, in 1958, 1962 and 1988, but unlike in those cases, this time around the Tatmadaw has been at pains to paint its overthrow of the elected government as constitutional and seems intent on maintaining the existing constitutional setup. “Shift possible on Burma policy”, The Washington Post, 19 February 2009. It is bordered by China, India, and Thailand. Myanmar has about 7 cities, and it's capital is Naypyidaw. [fn]India’s and Vietnam’s presence in 2021 on the Security Council – both countries have close links to the Tatmadaw – may also diminish its ability to play a major role in managing the crisis.Hide Footnote The stronger-than-expected condemnation of the coup in the Council’s initial statement could indicate that China is not entirely opposed to a UN role on Myanmar, even if it is unlikely to support any moves to put significant pressure on Naypyitaw through the Council. “The Internal Situation in Myanmar (Statement by Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu)”, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1 February 2021. This study looks at the organizational development of the Myanmar armed forces. Myanmar’s military overthrew its newly elected parliament on 1 February, halting the country’s democratic transition and sparking massive protests. [fn]See footnotes 29 and 30.Hide Footnote The regulatory complexities and additional transaction costs that the sanctions imposed on commerce in Myanmar likely benefitted the military and its favoured business partners by crowding out competition from other businesses. 9/2021, Office of the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, 2 February 2021. "Selth's book will become a standard reference work. The scale of protests indicates that after ten years of relative freedom – and unprecedented exposure to the outside world thanks to social media – the Myanmar people, and particularly the younger generation that has come to take freedoms for granted, are even more strongly resistant to military rule than they were under the previous junta. The Myanmar military is known as the Tatmadaw. “Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to the Situation in Burma”, White House, 11 February 2021. Already in 2017, a debate, sparked by the Rohingya crisis, about removing Myanmar from the EBA resulted in the EU putting the country under a regime of enhanced monitoring. Finally, external actors should bear in mind that even if they cannot act in concert on every element of policy concerning Myanmar’s dispiriting democratic reversal, they must retain the ability to work together to reduce risks of further bloodshed. Riot police in front of Yangon’s City Hall. In the American military, four types of command relationships are … The military leaders remain proudly aloof, partly blind to the possibilities presented by cooperating with the outside world. With a daunting task ahead the NLD government has made some progress in removing the vestiges of repressive military-era laws but many remain untouched and some of the practices of the new government provide unwelcome reminders of its authoritarian history. The military regime stands largely alone in the world by choice as much as necessity. Given this situation, and while it remains vital to work for restoration of democracy, it may be more practical to focus as an immediate goal on facilitating a gradual loosening of military control over political and economic activity. [fn]“USAID immediately redirects $42 million in response to the military coup in Burma”, press release, USAID, 11 February 2021.Hide Footnote The military will hardly welcome such a move but may be reluctant to block aid to the country. Since 2011, the removal of Western sanctions and new foreign investments have resulted in high rates of economic growth and an expanding middle class, albeit from a very low base. “International censure and sanctions have reinforced the siege mentality of highly nationalistic leaders. Recent developments warrant opening that debate again. Why does it matter? The coup reversed years of slow progress toward democracy in Myanmar after five decades of military rule. Even so, the population affected by Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar received only about one tenth of the assistance provided to Aceh after the 2004 tsunami, a tragedy of comparable scale and impact. For Western governments invested in Myanmar’s democratic transition, initial statements were only an opening salvo. Though it was adopted by consensus at a meeting called for by the UK and EU, Russia and China issued a statement “disassociating” themselves from its provisions. “Myanmar junta pushes punitive cyber bill”. Any measures should be preceded by a careful review and evaluation of potential consequences of targeting the conglomerates as a whole, rather than some (or many) of their constituent companies. Early in the morning of 1 February, the Tatmadaw detained State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other key NLD and government figures; shut down internet access in the country; and deployed soldiers in strategic locations. The criterion for scaling down aid should not be whether it funds government-run programs but whether it primarily benefits the Tatmadaw. Create free account to … Other national opposition parties failed to win a single seat, and ethnic parties – widely expected to do better than in the past – were not able to improve on their 2015 performance.